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Testing, Testing...One Two Three. Is this thing on?
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:18 am
by halfogre0520
Character: Test Subject One - Fighter, Level 6
Race: Half-Orc
Class: Fighter
Level: 6
Target Enemy: Ettins and Gorgo
Items:
Socketed Full Plate ( AC +1, 5% Blunt Immunity)
Socketed Battleaxe ( Acid +1d6)
Socketed Helmet ( 5% Fire Immunity, Concentration +1)
Gauntlets of Ogre Power
Greater Cloak of Protection vs. Evil
Ring of Invisibility
Ring of Protection +2
Amulet of Natural AC +2
Boots of Hardiness +1
Brawler's Belt
Torch-Forged ( 5% Slash Immunity, Int +1, Haste, Disease Immunity, Fort Save +1, Univ Save +1, Light 20', Regeneration +1)
Rod Of The Ghost x7
Potions of Barkskin
Potions of Bless
Potions of Aid
Potions of Bull Strength
Potions of Endurance
Potions of Clarity
Potions of Cure Serious Wounds
Healing Kits +1
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:24 am
by halfogre0520
Session One -
Start Time: 8/19/07, 11:30PM
End Time: 8/20/07, 1:00AM
# of Ettins Killed: 181
# of Gorgo Killed: 7
Gold Collected: 4725
Items Found:
#1: MW Chain Shirt of Sonic Immunity
#2: MW Full Plate of Fire Resistance
#3: MW Hide Armor
#4: Screaming Arcane Whip
#5: Enchanted Kukri
#6: Burning Short Sword
#7: Burning Heavy Flail
#8: Freezing Dire Mace
#9: Screaming bastard Sword
Other: Bolt x1, Woodcutter's Axe, Spear, Fire Opal, Shuriken x1, Scarab of Protection +1, Stag Helmet, Masterwork Shortbow.
Special thanks to Eclipse08 and Murken for providing the buffs that lasted for the entire session. Literally, my character was in the ettin enclave for the entire hour and a half.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 7:29 am
by halfogre0520
Clarification: When I say the character is level 6 for this test, I mean I am not going to level him beyond level 6. He currently gets the "You cannot gain any more XP until you level up" message for every kill. Before he gained enough XP to advance to level 7, he was getting 269xp for each Ettin killed and 490xp for each Gorgo killed. This would indicate to me that these monsters are at a higher level and should produce good treasure.
Here's what it boils down to for session one:
Gold Per Kill = 25
Items Per Kill = .09
I shall continue this first character for a few more days to see if we can get his average up.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:18 am
by ST_DM_Myle
If you have the stomach for it, please continue. It is difficult to get specific data like this becausse so much is based on the luck of the drop.
Also.. the NWN number generator is known to cycle at something less than random. lol
Myle
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 10:28 am
by Thanatos
ST_DM_Myle wrote:If you have the stomach for it, please continue. It is difficult to get specific data like this becausse so much is based on the luck of the drop.
Also.. the NWN number generator is known to cycle at something less than random. lol
Myle
Been meaning to start a new char and record the data from 1-40...perhaps this would be a good time.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 1:04 pm
by halfogre0520
Thanatos wrote:ST_DM_Myle wrote:If you have the stomach for it, please continue. It is difficult to get specific data like this becausse so much is based on the luck of the drop.
Also.. the NWN number generator is known to cycle at something less than random. lol
Myle
Been meaning to start a new char and record the data from 1-40...perhaps this would be a good time.
Therin lies most of the issue. Driller says people power level, so this character is going to forgo levelling completely. My next two characters are going to be a few levels higher and go to different places to see how the drops fair at different levels. If what he says is true, then this character should receive more forge stones in drops than if he were to continue levelling since the odds of a forge stone dropping is constant at this level vs. the level of enemies. If he receives NO forge stones for the length of time I spend on him, then Driller's claim is false and something needs to be done.
As DM Myle was speaking about the possibility that I'm complaining about my not getting a forge stone, that is incorrect. I'm saying that Driller's statement about the odds of a forge stone dropping are incorrect. If the odds are 1 in a 1000 that a stone will drop, and the character kills 1000 ettins, then one forge stone should drop.
On the other hand, if the odds reset along with the server, then Driller's running a shell game. Even if a character killed 4 enemies a minute, he'd only be able to dispose of 960 enemies in the space of a four hour period. That's non-stop mind you, no resting, no buffing, no stopping for bathroom breaks. My last hour and a half session was such, except I averaged 2 ettins per minute. This falls way below the 4.17 enemies per minute needed to gain the one forge stone the odds speak of.
So. If what Myle says is true, and the randomness of the NWN engine is suspect, then all of my work to prove the problem is there is for naught.
I still say that if the socket gems/runes are going to be that rare, remove the socket items from the stores. It's just a tease.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 1:38 pm
by Thanatos
halfogre0520 wrote:
Therin lies most of the issue. Driller says people power level, so this character is going to forgo levelling completely. My next two characters are going to be a few levels higher and go to different places to see how the drops fair at different levels. If what he says is true, then this character should receive more forge stones in drops than if he were to continue levelling since the odds of a forge stone dropping is constant at this level vs. the level of enemies. If he receives NO forge stones for the length of time I spend on him, then Driller's claim is false and something needs to be done.
As DM Myle was speaking about the possibility that I'm complaining about my not getting a forge stone, that is incorrect. I'm saying that Driller's statement about the odds of a forge stone dropping are incorrect. If the odds are 1 in a 1000 that a stone will drop, and the character kills 1000 ettins, then one forge stone should drop.
On the other hand, if the odds reset along with the server, then Driller's running a shell game. Even if a character killed 4 enemies a minute, he'd only be able to dispose of 960 enemies in the space of a four hour period. That's non-stop mind you, no resting, no buffing, no stopping for bathroom breaks. My last hour and a half session was such, except I averaged 2 ettins per minute. This falls way below the 4.17 enemies per minute needed to gain the one forge stone the odds speak of.
So. If what Myle says is true, and the randomness of the NWN engine is suspect, then all of my work to prove the problem is there is for naught.
I still say that if the socket gems/runes are going to be that rare, remove the socket items from the stores. It's just a tease.
This method will work if you're merely farming at a certain lvl. However, not many are going to sit there at lvl 6 and grind ettins. If they were, they'd be buffed and there'd be no reason to go about this with the aforementioned method. So sitting there for hours on end till you get a forgie and calculate the odds without being buffed would be meaningless.
I'll be running through to lvl 40, as most characters do, to test just what the numbers show as a character lvls normally. So at the end of the process, I can verify the actual numbers produced along a normal lvl'ing timeline.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:14 pm
by Queen Naga II
Congratulation Halfogre, I have thought often myself posting somewhat like data recently to what you have done here. But I refrained from doing so for reasons which don't belong here.
Anyway do please continue, I will be sure to read this thread with interest specifically on your reports.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:23 pm
by halfogre0520
Thanatos wrote:halfogre0520 wrote:
Therin lies most of the issue. Driller says people power level, so this character is going to forgo levelling completely. My next two characters are going to be a few levels higher and go to different places to see how the drops fair at different levels. If what he says is true, then this character should receive more forge stones in drops than if he were to continue levelling since the odds of a forge stone dropping is constant at this level vs. the level of enemies. If he receives NO forge stones for the length of time I spend on him, then Driller's claim is false and something needs to be done.
As DM Myle was speaking about the possibility that I'm complaining about my not getting a forge stone, that is incorrect. I'm saying that Driller's statement about the odds of a forge stone dropping are incorrect. If the odds are 1 in a 1000 that a stone will drop, and the character kills 1000 ettins, then one forge stone should drop.
On the other hand, if the odds reset along with the server, then Driller's running a shell game. Even if a character killed 4 enemies a minute, he'd only be able to dispose of 960 enemies in the space of a four hour period. That's non-stop mind you, no resting, no buffing, no stopping for bathroom breaks. My last hour and a half session was such, except I averaged 2 ettins per minute. This falls way below the 4.17 enemies per minute needed to gain the one forge stone the odds speak of.
So. If what Myle says is true, and the randomness of the NWN engine is suspect, then all of my work to prove the problem is there is for naught.
I still say that if the socket gems/runes are going to be that rare, remove the socket items from the stores. It's just a tease.
This method will work if you're merely farming at a certain lvl. However, not many are going to sit there at lvl 6 and grind ettins. If they were, they'd be buffed and there'd be no reason to go about this with the aforementioned method. So sitting there for hours on end till you get a forgie and calculate the odds without being buffed would be meaningless.
I'll be running through to lvl 40, as most characters do, to test just what the numbers show as a character lvls normally. So at the end of the process, I can verify the actual numbers produced along a normal lvl'ing timeline.
But that's the whole point. It was mentioned that it doesn't matter what level you are as long as you kill things higher than your character. I could just as simply run around with a level 22 immune to the gills and kill ants to prove the same thing (Which actually puts me of a mind to do that as well).
What you're suggesting is that over the lifetime of a character that is NOT power-levelled the chance of forge stones is the same. Wait a tick... that's great! I look forward to your experiment as well as my own. Let's cover it from all angles shall we?
Oooo, I'm all a-quiver! Or a bow.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 2:40 pm
by alnyndur
Ok, I started a new char. He is currently 4th level and all I have fought is the wolves, kobolds and undead on the road. I'm pretty much just sticking to fighting things around my level.
Maybe I am just lucky so far, but I have found two forge stones and equipment I have sold for 200k. No socket gems/ruin stones as of yet though.
I will continue to slow level this char and see if my luck holds out.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 3:34 pm
by Thanatos
HalfOgre: The only thing that would limit your results would be the cut-off line between you getting more drops at one lvl than at another lvl.
Example: Let's say you go grinding the ettins for hours on end, whilst staying at lvl 7. We'll say you experience some less than average luck.
Now, if you did the same thing, but at lvl 6, and experienced riches galore...the only logical way to go about your study would be to grind the same area for the same period of time, killing the same number of monsters for lvls 1-40 (okay maybe not all the way to 40) to find out where the dividing line would be for drop% and even then, you might just get lucky once in a while, throwing your stats outta whack for certain lvls.
At least that's the way I see it.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 3:53 pm
by Elfrogue
If the odds are 1 in a 1000 that a stone will drop, and the character kills 1000 ettins, then one forge stone should drop.
I think this is where people get confused. I believe how this works is that for each drop, there is a 1 in 1000 chance that a stone drops. Then the next time a drop occurs there is once again a 1 in 1000 chance. For there to be a guaranteed 1 drop per 1000 then each time the random number generator used a number that returned a false it would have to throw that number out, until there are no numbers left. Which would then make it guaranteed that for every thousand drops you would get 1 and only 1 forge stone as the one value that returns true is removed once you hit it, and will not be hit again until the number seed is reset to full value.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 4:27 pm
by Some fellow
Elfrogue wrote:If the odds are 1 in a 1000 that a stone will drop, and the character kills 1000 ettins, then one forge stone should drop.
I think this is where people get confused. I believe how this works is that for each drop, there is a 1 in 1000 chance that a stone drops. Then the next time a drop occurs there is once again a 1 in 1000 chance. For there to be a guaranteed 1 drop per 1000 then each time the random number generator used a number that returned a false it would have to throw that number out, until there are no numbers left. Which would then make it guaranteed that for every thousand drops you would get 1 and only 1 forge stone as the one value that returns true is removed once you hit it, and will not be hit again until the number seed is reset to full value.
Right. For what it's worth, if the stone chance is 1 in 1000 each time, and you try 1000 times, then you still have a probability of 37% to not get any stones at all. To balance this out, of course, there's also a 26% chance to get more than one.
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:13 pm
by DM_Mystic
There's still another thing to consider with both statistical methods. That is that a 1 in 1000 chance of a drop in general doesn't mean that for every thousand instances that one will occur. Multiply the results by ten and you have a 10 in 10,000 chance, meaning that you could kill 9,900 monsters with no forgies, and perhaps find them in the last ten (or still none at all). It's similar to the old joke that 1 in every 4 people is ugly, so if you're in the company of 3 good looking people, *shrugs* guess what?
Posted: Mon Aug 20, 2007 5:51 pm
by halfogre0520
Session Two -
Start Time: 10:30AM 8/20/07
End Time: 11:15AM 8/20/07
Gold Collected: 1420
# Ettins Killed: 144
# Gorgo Killed: 5
Items Collected:
#1: Screeching Sickle
#2: Brutal Battleaxe
#3: Burning Two-Bladed Sword
#4: Ferocious Bastard Sword
Other: Socketed Dwarven Waraxe, Potion of Bless, MW Monk's Wrap, Portal Scroll, Wine, Potion o Cure Serious Wounds, Emerald, COBALT FORGE STONE, Whip, MW Longsword, Club, Gloves of Swordplay, Socketed Scalemail, MW Padded Armor, Padded Armor, Ale, Socketed Helmet, Potion of Cure Critical Wounds.
What It Boils Down To:
Gold Per Kill: 9.53
Items Per Kill: .15
Kills Per Minute: 3.31
CUMULATIVE:
Gold Per Kill: 18.18
Items Per Kill: .12
Kills Per Minute: 2.5
Forge Stones Found: 1
Socket Gems/Runes Found: 0
This session was half of what the other one was, but I burned through more ettins it seems. Finally found a forge stone.
Conclusion: If what I've read here about the odds being PER drop instead over TOTAL drops, then I still say that's too rare to be an attraction of the server. I'm planning one more outing for this character so we'll see what that brings.